Standing Tough and Tackling Political Quagmire, Nitish Kumar Stands Tall Among Regional Minnows

By Praveen K Singh

As the elections bugle has been blown in the state of Bihar with start of virtual rally by Union Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah on June 9, the stage is set for a new style of political campaign and elections in the post COVID-19 scenario.

State BJP president Sanjay Jaiswal says, “The virtual rally can be verily called the commencement of our digital campaign for assembly elections in Bihar. The June 9 rally by the Home Minister will be followed by similar public addresses from party president J P Nadda, who is expected to address the people in two phases covering north and south Bihar.” The poll is expected to be held in October-November this year.

On the ground, the political tone for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar still says that he is a popular leader and visionary, who is leading the state in a robust manner.

CM Nitish Kumar as Vikas Purush and Sushan Babu created his impact in the state and became a well accepted mass leader. On the similar lines as PM Narendra Modi enjoys popularity among the central leadership as none of the opposition leaders stand any change the way he enjoys the esteem of a Prime Ministerial candidate. Nitish’s quick and fast-paced infrastructural developments of building dilapidated roads, schools, hospitals, higher educational institutions, electric powerhouses and power supply lines, helped in garnering a support across the caste lines and development of the state became the election plank.

CM Nitish Kumar as Vikas Purush and Sushan Babu created his impact in the state and became a well accepted mass leader. On the similar lines as PM Narendra Modi enjoys popularity among the central leadership as none of the opposition leaders stand any change the way he enjoys the esteem of a Prime Ministerial candidate.

The performance of ruling Bhartiya Janata Party in the recent assembly elections certainly has hard-hitting and demanding challenge in front of it. BJP’s recent drubbing is also likely to impact its prospects in Bihar vis-a-vis its tie-up with Janata Dal (United). Many observers are already queuing up to declare that it may now concede ‘supremacy’ to the Bihar chief minister in the upcoming assembly polls.

SEQUENTIAL POLITICAL DRIVE

In 2005 Bihar assembly elections, when it meekly admitted to Nitish Kumar’s plank of “nyay ke sath vikas (growth with justice)” in the broader frame of socialism and secularism. The first phase of the NDA rule – that lasted until 2013 when Nitish rejected Narendra Modi’s emergence as leader of the saffron party and dumped the BJP – was largely seen as one that witnessed all-round progress in Bihar with the chief minister empowering the extremely backward classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits on the principle of “growth with justice” and giving a proportionate share to minorities in the power structure.

While Nitish earned goodwill of minorities by re-opening cases from the 1989 Bhagalpur riots, getting the culprits punished and giving compensation to the survivors of the riots. While the emergence of Narendra Modi and the BJP’s consecutive victories in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019 may have helped the saffron party rewrite the rules of constitutional governance, it simply derailed the process of development in Bihar.

Politics surpassed governance and Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP to join hands with the RJD-Congress in 2015 only to come back to the NDA in 2017, which now had the BJP aggressively carrying out its divisive agenda. But as history repeats itself, the BJP’s trump card of Hindutva is increasingly returning marginal dividends. Its recent defeat in two states – first in Jharkhand and then in Delhi – after invoking the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) has put a snag in its ambitions of overtaking Nitish in Bihar.

Politics surpassed governance and Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP to join hands with the RJD-Congress in 2015 only to come back to the NDA in 2017, which now had the BJP aggressively carrying out its divisive agenda.

Though some detractors feel that the fact is that the Bihar CM, unlike in previous elections, is facing an anti-incumbency sentiment. He is not as popular as he used to be a few years ago. In conversations with several observers of Bihar politics and visits to the state in recent years, I sensed growing resentment amongst people about Nitish Kumar’s rule. His image of Sushasan Babu (the Man of Good Governance) is no longer intact. This is something that he, his party and the BJP’s leadership are acutely aware of.

BJP BRAVEHEARTS

For a short while, even if we assume that people are really tired of Nitish Kumar, the question is who are the stalwarts in BJP which can take on to Nitish Kumar in his popularity and stature. Even if a Sushil Kumar Modi or Nityanand Rai – or any other BJP leader for that matter – can provide a pro-people government. According to political experts, the answer is: a state government headed by a BJP leader is unlikely to be any different from the current one. There are two main reasons for this. The foremost reason is, barring a few years, the BJP has been an integral part of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government in the state since 2005. Sushil Modi is perhaps the longest serving deputy CM of Bihar. Unlike parties like LJP, the saffron party has been a prime partner of the Bihar government and cannot absolve itself from the ‘misrule’ of the Nitish government.

ADVANTAGE KUMAR

In contrast, Nitish has still retained his image as that of a performing chief minister. After all, reasonably better roads, the improved condition of hospitals in the state, better electric power and water supply, toilets in rural homes coupled with a sharp decline in the student dropout rate in schools and an effective grievance redressal system that has won a national award will all work to Nitish Kumar’s advantage. Moreover, the added benefit of TINA (There Is No Alternative) will also bolster his support.

Despite his long stint in jail, Lalu Prasad and his RJD also continue to be a strong political force at the ground level. With the Yadavs and Muslims, who constitute nearly 30 percent of the state’s voters, still behind RJD, Lalu has a very effective social capital but his successor, Tejashwi Yadav, despite showing an initial spark, has a long way to go.

Despite his long stint in jail, Lalu Prasad and his RJD also continue to be a strong political force at the ground level. With the Yadavs and Muslims, who constitute nearly 30 percent of the state’s voters, still behind RJD, Lalu has a very effective social capital but his successor, Tejashwi Yadav, despite showing an initial spark, has a long way to go before he can match Nitish’s administrative acumen and experience.

Today, the situation in Bihar is different. While it would be a mistake to think people are not tired of Nitish Kumar, the bigger mistake would be to think that a BJP regime will solve the problems the state faces. Experts opine that the party and its leadership have been part of the problem uniformly. Contradicting that is nothing but depriving and cheating the people of the state of Bihar.