Will Chirag Paswan again create problems for Nitish Kumar’s JDU in Bihar assembly election?

The poll bugle has been sounded in Bihar, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announcing a slew of welfare initiatives to woo voters in the state. He is eyeing another term as the Bihar CM and aims to strenghthen his party’s position in the state. If all goes well in his favour, he will take oath for the record 10th time as the chief minister.

But the road may not be so easy for Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). The party faces some grave challenges – not just from the Opposition, but also from within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

NDA vs NDA? What’s the twist?

A threat to the JD(U) may come from Chirag Paswan and his party Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

Chirag Paswan, who is an ally of the JD(U) and the BJP and is part of the NDA in Bihar, recently expressed his desire to contest the Bihar Assembly Elections on all 243 seats. This may have alarmed the JDU.

Paswan said on June 8, “For those who ask from where I will contest, I want to tell you that my party, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and I will contest on 243 seats to make NDA candidates win and strengthen the NDA alliance. My goal is that the NDA moves towards victory…”

But will Chirag Paswan himself contest the polls? He has left this decision to the people of the state.

In an interview with Times Now, Paswan further clarified that it’s upon his party to take a decision after analysing the pros and cons of him contesting the Bihar polls. “Will it benefit the gathbandhan (NDA)? What overall impact will it have on the NDA’s poll campaign?

LJP-Ram Vilas MP Arun Bharti had earlier informed that the party is conducting a survey, and the result will eventually ascertain whether Chirag Paswan would “think about coming to Bihar and contesting elections.”

LJP hurts JDU in 2020 Bihar election

Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) had fielded candidates on 137 of 243 seats in the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections. The party had won just one seats, but significantly cut into the JD(U)’s vote share.

For the unversed, the JDU and the BJP contested the 2020 polls in alliance (NDA). The undivided LJP was not part of it then. The LJP official split into two parties – Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party – in 2021.

In 2020, The LJP pitted all its 137 candidates against the contenders of the JD(U) after it decided to quit the NDA. As many as 25 BJP rebel leaders had also joined the LJP after the party denied them a ticket.

The result was such that the JD(U)’s seat share fell much below the BJP’s figures for the first time since 2005.

Nitish Kumar’s party, which won 71 seats in the 2015 state polls, secured just 43 seats in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, the BJP gained significantly, increasing its seat share from 53 in 2015 to 74 in 2020.

The JD(U) had then lost its position as the second-largest party in the state, only to be replaced by the BJP. Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) maintained its single-largest party status.

Once the senior partner in the NDA in Bihar, the JD(U) found itself falling behind its junior ally, the BJP, after the 2020 polls.

Several JDU leaders had then blamed the BJP for the party’s loss. They started believing that Chirag Paswan had acted as the BJP’s proxy to cut the party’s votes.

JD(U) lawmakers had told The New Indian Express, “… the BJP changed its colours once the assembly polls of 2020 approached.”

“It [BJP] was clearly behind the rebellion of Chirag Paswan who openly spoke of dislodging Nitish Kumar and fielded his candidates, many of them so-called rebels of the BJP, in all seats the JD(U) contested,” the sources reportedly said.

Chirag Paswan-Nitish Kumar equation

Today, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) is part of the NDA. Despite this, he doesn’t fall short of criticising Nitish Kumar’s governance.

In early July, Chirag Paswan said that law and order in Bihar has completely collapsed, while raising concerns over the murder of two youths in Nalanda.

In a post on X on July 7, Chirag Paswan said, “Yesterday, in Biharsharif, Nalanda, criminals brutally murdered 16-year-old Himanshu Paswan and 20-year-old Anu Kumar by shooting them. This incident is extremely unfortunate and condemnable. This heinous event not only shakes humanity but also shows that law and order in Bihar have completely collapsed.”

He also referred to the CM Nitish Kumar in his X post, saying, “Crime in the state is at its peak, and the fact that such an incident was carried out by criminals in the home district of the honourable Chief Minister clearly indicates that the morale of criminals is at its highest.”

“I have spoken with the local administration over the phone and have directed them to identify the criminals and take strict action,” he added.

His comments raised speculations around his equation with the JDU and Nitish Kumar.

The LJP (Ram Vilas) is part of the ruling NDA, with Janata Dal (United) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The LJP is expected to keep on allying with the NDA for the upcoming Bihar polls, however Paswan has not yet confirmed his stance on it.

(Source: LiveMint)